Abbott’s task with Indonesia not as easy as it looks

Analysis by: Michael Bachelard === Tony Abbott has backed away from his pledge to visit Indonesia in his first week in office but the promise stands to make it his first overseas destination as prime minister.

The meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum will be held in Nusa Dua, Bali, early next month, so if he also travels to Jakarta before that, he’ll be going twice to the country in his first month in office. His visit, or visits, will be watched closely.

But without Abbott having lifted a finger, economic circumstances have done him one big favour. In response to a current account scare and the plunge of the rupiah, Indonesia’s new finance manager has removed the quota on beef imports in the name of economic stimulus.

The short-lived Australian ban on live exports in 2011, followed by the nationalistic assertion in Indonesia that it could be self-sufficient in beef by 2014, conspired both to damage the Northern Territory cattle industry and send Indonesian beef prices soaring. Abbott used it ruthlessly to hurt Labor.

Indonesia’s quiet abandonment of that policy during Australia’s election campaign has cleared one issue off the bilateral table but Abbott cannot expect the rest of his demands of Indonesia to be settled so easily.

On asylum seekers particularly, he has raised hackles. His boat-buying policy has been labelled “crazy”, with senior MP Mahfudz Siddiq saying this week that it was clear Abbott “doesn’t understand diplomacy or bilateral co-operation”.

His “turn back the boats” policy is also deeply unpopular right up to the presidential office.

This is a question of sovereignty and national pride on both sides of the ocean.

When Australia’s navy turns the first boat around under Operation Sovereign Borders – and it becomes the responsibility of Indonesia’s anaemic search and rescue capability – or limps back to an already bursting immigration detention system, expect Indonesian civil society and politics to object loudly about Australian chauvinism.

At Abbott’s back, though, are the expectations he himself has raised.

Former Liberal foreign affairs minister Alexander Downer, for example, has argued that Australia should earn respect in Jakarta by muscling up.

“If John Howard had rung me and asked if he should sign a joint communique with Indonesia saying we would never act unilaterally to protect our borders, I would have told him it would be a sell-out of our national interest,” Downer wrote in July. “It would be weak and fawning. You don’t win respect signing documents like that. But that’s hypothetical. Howard, a patriot if ever there were one, wouldn’t have countenanced signing such a document.”

Abbott is known in Indonesia as Howard’s political offspring. That is not an unalloyed positive. Castigated first as George Bush’s “deputy sheriff,” Howard did develop a good relationship with Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono personally, and Indonesia generally, after the first Bali bombing in 2002, sealing it with a billion-dollar donation after the Aceh disaster in 2004. But he is still widely blamed for “masterminding” the separation of East Timor.

Meanwhile, Abbott will turn up in Indonesia promising, for the sake of domestic politics, a huge cut to foreign aid – $4.5 billion out over the next four years. The fact that this is likely to hit Indonesia hardest – it is our biggest aid recipient – has already been noted in Jakarta. A Jakarta Post opinion story on Monday said of aid: “The future looks bleak.”

A wild card in the diplomatic mix is one tiny boat with six people aboard. The Pog, the last vessel of the so-called Freedom Flotilla, set off on Monday morning from far north Queensland en route to West Papua. The Pog carries Amos Wanggai, one of the indigenous Papuan men who deeply disturbed relations between Howard and Indonesia in 2006 by sailing in the opposite direction and successfully seeking asylum in Australia.

West Papua is the poison apple in the bilateral relationship. After that refugee incident, Howard tried to find an antidote with the Lombok treaty of 2006, which guarantees Australian support for Indonesian control over Papua.

However, many Indonesians simply do not believe the words, and think Australia still agitates for the province’s independence, just as it did East Timor’s.

The landing of the Pog, its interception by the Indonesian military, and the possible imprisonment of its sailors may pose an early challenge for Abbott and his likely foreign affairs minister Julie Bishop.

Indonesia’s economy is growing fast. Its military is gearing up. It is flexing its diplomatic muscles as the largest economy in the Association of South East Asian Nations. It is becoming more assertive about its place in the world.

It is also at the end of an electoral cycle. SBY’s term ends next year and he already looks like yesterday’s man. His replacement may not be as sympathetic or measured towards Australia’s needs, and the relationship remains full of potential misunderstandings on both sides.

As prime minister, Abbott cannot any longer pretend that his boats policy is unpopular in Indonesia because Labor spoilt the relationship. He must take responsibility for his own policies and set his own tone with a changing, increasingly confident Indonesia, while projecting an image that allows him to work with whoever replaces SBY.

It’s not an easy task, and it begins soon.

=> Michael Bachelard is Indonesia correspondent for Fairfax Media

Source: The Age

Australian won’t bow to Papua pressure, FM says

Foreign Minister Bob Carr says Australia has been “explicit” in its support for Indonesia’s sovereignty over Papua.

Australian Foreign Minister, Bob Carr

Senator Carr told Newsline the provinces have been recognised “by all the nations in the earth” as Indonesian territory.
(See the video)

“There are Australians, a very small number I think…who take an interest in the notion for more autonomy for Papua but I remind them that you’d be doing a disservice to the Indonesian population of those two provinces if you held out any hope that Australia could influence the cause of events,” he said.

The Foreign Minister has dismissed suggestions public pressure would cause Australia to change its policy on Papua’s autonomy.

“I just ask those idealistic Australians who might entertain some other arrangement, that what would be the cost in terms of our friendship with Indonesia and in terms of our budget of a different arrangement.

“It’s inconceivable, utterly inconceivable.”

‘Australians seen as Asians’

The Foreign Minister says Australia’s relationship with Indonesia involves a “habit of consultation” – a relationship it enjoys with a number of its Asian neighbours including Japan, South Korea and Singapore.

“We had the Singaporeans through in recent weeks and again we have common approaches to issues like the South China Sea, he said.

“A comfortable alignment of our foreign policy positions.”

He also countered criticisms Australia’s perceptions of Asia are superficial and too “Eurocentric” in response to the recently-released Asian Century policy paper.

“The foreign minister of Myanmar was through here last week and he said..’We see Australia as Asians’,” he said.

“Why wouldn’t he? We were there in Myanmar lifting, not just suspending our sanctions.”

Senator Carr says the fact Australia won a seat on the United Nations Security Council is also testament of its strong relationship with its neighbours.

“I was struck by this when I stood there in the UN and I was being congratulated by nations from every region in the world and it dawned on me that they’re comfortable with Australia and that reflects our diplomacy,” he said.

Source: Australia Network News

Strategic leadership, policies can save Papua

By: Wibawanto Nugroho.* — TODAY’S critical situation in Papua is attributed to accumulative public policies that have been imposed on this richly endowed island for almost five decades. Acknowledging the root causes and implementing the right solutions are two daunting challenges.

The Indonesian jurisdiction of the island of Papua, which consists of Papua and West Papua provinces, is one of Indonesia’s largest islands and one of the world’s richest reserves for copper, uranium, gold and silver. But they are still the two provinces whose Human Development Index (HDI) is among the lowest in Indonesia — at least, looking at the socioeconomic quality of life there. According to the Central Statistics Agency, the two provinces combined contribute 2.1 per cent of Indonesia’s gross regional domestic product for oil and gas, and 2.2 per cent for the non-oil and gas sector.

The stepping down of Suharto and the new democratic era since 1998 has not solved degenerative politics in Papua. Until today, the Indonesian government is still struggling against serious insurgency movements that aim to separate Papua.

Papua is an obvious case where degenerative public policy is prevalent in a corrupt society exacerbated by weak law enforcement, weak democracy where transparency is hardly ever found, and conditions in which powerful parts of society disproportionately supersede other parties in many respects.

Degenerative politics have placed political elites, business communities and the central government as the powerful stakeholders (powerful and positively constructed). Papua’s local indigenous people, however, have become dependents (positively constructed as “good” people but relatively needy or helpless, who have little or no political power).

Papua’s local insurgents are deemed deviants and groups of reformers who aim to reform Papua economically, politically and socially are considered the contenders.

Looking ahead, Indonesia obviously needs strong and strategic leadership that knows how to implement at least five main objectives through a strategically overarching model of engagement.

FIRST, Indonesia needs a strategic leader who can acknowledge the bias and weaknesses within the government, including those of previous governments;

SECOND, the president, as commander-in-chief and a strategic leader, needs to be open-minded and accommodative towards diverse perspectives held by various stakeholders;

THIRD, the president, along with other policy stakeholders, needs to approach and solve problems in Papua from an overarching perspective using historical and innovative approaches coupled with the courage to take risks;

FOURTH, the endgame state of solving the issues in Papua must bring degenerative politics to an end; and,

FIFTH, the government needs to formulate and exercise an overarching, entire-governmental campaign to deal both with the provinces’ root issue — degenerative politics — and current symptoms.

At an operational level, the government needs to engage in five interconnected measures.

THE FIRST is psychological engagement to truly win the hearts and minds of the people in Papua;

THE SECOND is law enforcement to deal with any abuse of power, including the allegation of mismanaged funding allocations from 2002 to 2010 as reported by the Supreme Audit Agency;

THE THIRD is public diplomacy to win support from domestic and international stakeholders, accompanied by a set of real actions in order to gain credibility and trust;

THE FOURTH measure is counter-insurgency (COIN) engagement in order to neutralise separatist movements. COIN must be a combination of offensive, defensive and stability operations. The government also needs to trace and halt any financial support for Papua’s separatist movements; and,

THE FIFTH measure is the acceleration of economic development that is truly based on a well-designed platform of public policy so that the government can ensure that degenerative public policies are not implemented in the future; and development in its widest sense — economic, social and political — takes place in Papua.

Having succeeded in this strategic and overarching engagement, the government will be well in advance of the separatist movements, whose main components consist of mass bases, united fronts, political warfare, armed wings and international support.

The endgame state of any engagement in Papua must be strategic and overarching in order to create a lasting peace and sustainable development.

The critical success factor to achieve this goal is to think and act strategically: Indonesians must be honest with ourselves, understand our past mistakes, clearly acknowledge the real problems, address the underlying causes — not merely act as a fire extinguisher to treat the perennial symptoms — and dare to take risks and adopt innovative ways to solve the chronic problems. It’s time for Indonesians to think clearly and act for Papua. If we fail to save Papua, the country’s national security will be in peril.

* Wibawanto Nugroho is PhD Fulbright presidential scholar at the GMU School of Public Policy in Washington DC.

Source: New Strait Times

Indonesian Government Achieves Successes in Overseas Diplomacy

Indonesian diplomacy to allay international concerns about its policy of special autonomy for the province of Papua is slowly bearing fruit, Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa says.

Speaking at the House of Representatives on Wednesday (30/05), Marty said several countries had softened their stance on the policy, including Pacific island nations such as Vanuatu that have traditionally been opposed to Indonesia’s administration of Papua.

“Vanuatu has changed its position and now supports special autonomy in Papua,” he said.

Vanuatu and Sweden are the only two countries with international offices of the Free Papua Organization (OPM), a separatist group. The OPM’s office in Port Vila was set up in 1987 by an activist from the office in Stockholm.

At the time, Vanuatu was also the only country in the region to support the right of East Timor, another area taken over by Indonesia, to self-determination.

But in a statement published by the Vanuatu Daily Post on May 22, the prime minister’s office said its stand on Papua for the past 30 years “has not achieved the intended result.”

“The country has made enormous sacrifices by not being able to establish relations and closer cooperation with Indonesia and being able to source aid and assistance from Indonesia,” it said.

It also said that “Indonesia and West Papua will always be intricately connected in a manner which defies the true meaning of independence.”

Tubagus Hasanuddin, deputy chairman of House Commission I, which oversees foreign affairs, suggested that opposition to Indonesia’s policies in Papua could be tackled by addressing the human rights violations and discrimination of the region’s ethnic Melanesian residents.

“Stop the rights violations and discrimination, because this is what makes Papua” a cause for concern for the international community, he said.

Souece: The Jakarta Globe

VP Boediono: Papua needs justice, not just new buildings

The government is expanding its definition of “welfare” in its approach to Papua, and welcomes the assistance of foreign donors in developing Indonesia’s eastern most provinces.

Meeting with chief editors for tea at his office here on Wednesday (11/01), the Vice President Boediono conceded that the government felt a need to change its approach toward the often-troubled region.

“The people must be given a sense of safety, a sense of justice, not just be given new buildings,” he said.

He expressed confidence in the work of the Presidential Unit for the Acceleration of Development in Papua and West Papua (UP4B), which was now beginning its field work.

“[We need] to win hearts and minds,” the Vice President remarked.

Coordinating Economic Minister Hatta Rajasa, who also attended the gathering, insisted that “we’ve adopted the right approach, one that will accelerate development”.

“This approach is key, and it is vital that we do not delay [implementation],” he added.

According to Hatta, the government has already allocated an “amazing” amount of the state budget for developments in Papua, citing an allocation of Rp 29 trillion.

Responding to possible fears of foreign intervention should donor funds be more accessible to Papua, Boediono urged the public “not to seek ghosts in broad daylight”.

“The most important thing is for us to filter, be selective. Let’s not close ourselves off [unnecessarily].”

He stressed that there were many donors — bilateral and multilateral — with good intentions.

Both he and Hatta warned against undue fears that countries like Australia and the United States had ulterior motives, referring to treaties and statements made by the two countries respecting Indonesia’s territorial integrity.

One improvement that Boediono feels should be made is in the country’s diplomacy when presenting the Papua case abroad. “Not only should Indonesia be more proactive, but the approach must be holistic.”

Speaking on the overall economic challenges ahead, Boediono believes 2012 will be a tougher year than the previous one, but the government has prepared contingencies to overcome the year’s challenges.

“Global conditions in 2012 may not be as friendly as 2011,” he told editors. Consequently, Boediono believed there could be an impact upon exports, the flow of capital and an overall slowdown in the economy.

There may be small shocks, he said, “but we are ready”.

Three task forces have been set up to deal with the potential challenges. One will oversee the macro-monetary situation under the aegis of the finance minister and the central bank, while another will oversee the real-estate sector, particularly to examine bottlenecks that may impede development.

While many of these relate to infrastructure issues, Boediono pointed out that “it may not necessarily be a case of budgets”. “Sometimes it is a question of coordination between the central government and regional administrations and when it involves the regions, things can take a long time,” he remarked.

Boediono added that other cases involved policies, which could also become gridlocked.

Source: the Jakarta Post

Observer voices concern about developments in Papua

A political observer has voiced concern about social and security developments in Papua saying the government should be alert and consistent in dealing with the situation there.

Ikrar Nusa Bhakti from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) said the government had to take measures
to anticipate an escalation of pro-independence activity in Papua.

He said the separatists now no longer used violent but political methods as well as international diplomacy.

He referred to the peaceful rally in Sentani, Abepura and Manokwari on August 2 that had drawn n empathy not only from domestic but also international communities.

“The government must not ignore the pro-independence movement in Papua. The government must no longer use a business-as-usual approach in dealing with it,” he said.

He also said that the government must not ignore the separatist movement by considering that it could be settled through government-to-government approaches with the US, Australia or Britain.

He said international politics were no longer determined by government relations alone but also by non-state actors.

“Papua pro-independence activists abroad have begun using the Timor Leste method,” he said.

They have built networks in the US called West Papua Network, in Australia called West Papua Freedom Association and others.

In response to that, he said, the government must collect detailed information to see what had really happened and why it had happened.

The government also must know who the figures behind the movement were and ascertain whether represented the groups that it could have a dialog with.

Source: Antara News